Kacsmar: Just what is going on with the AFC?

NFC best conference, and not only because 3 AFC teams have winning records

Elaine Thompson / AP

Tom Brady's Patriots have beaten just one team with a winning record in their last 19 victories.

OPINION

By Scott Kacsmar

NBCSports.com contributor

updated 1:57 p.m. ET Oct. 25, 2012

You had a great run, AFC. But the NFC has taken the torch ? by force. The 2012 season is the year we will remember as when the NFC reclaimed their spot as the league?s best conference.

The NFL is cyclical. When the NFC was the dominant conference, their teams won 13 consecutive Super Bowls (1984-1996 seasons). After the 1997 Denver Broncos broke the dry spell, the AFC won nine of the next 12 Super Bowls.

As is usually the case, the balance of power swung back and stayed with the AFC thanks to superior talent at the two key positions of head coach and quarterback. Bill Belichick found Tom Brady in New England, Tony Dungy was the best coach for Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger won Super Bowls under Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh.

Those three teams and quarterbacks have started the last nine Super Bowls for the AFC, and 10 of the past 11. They have also been the class of the AFC, enjoying three of the most successful runs in NFL history.

But nothing stays the same forever. All three lost their most recent Super Bowl over the last three seasons, shifting the power back to the NFC and their prolific combinations at coach and quarterback.

Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have bested Brady and Belichick in two Super Bowls. Two 2006 rookie coaches, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy, paired up with dominant quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. They have won the last three championships (four of the last five).

More than just the Super Bowl wins, the NFC has recently been dominating the AFC in the regular season.

Season AFC Record Pct. 2002 34-29-1 0.539 2003 34-30 0.531 2004 44-20 0.688 2005 34-30 0.531 2006 40-24 0.625 2007 32-32 0.500 2008 34-29-1 0.539 2009 37-27 0.578 2010 34-30 0.531 2011 31-33 0.484 2012 9-19 0.321 Total 363-303-2 0.545

Even when the AFC was at its best, 2004 (14-9) and 2006 (12-15), their non-conference record through seven weeks was never as gaudy as the 19-9 (.679) mark the NFC holds this season. It comes after winning the 2011 season series, 33-31, for the first time since the league went to eight divisions in 2002.

Last year appeared to be an aberration for the AFC with Peyton Manning?s neck surgeries derailing the Colts? season. Matt Schaub went down after 10 games in Houston. Philip Rivers? play deteriorated. Ben Roethlisberger had a high-ankle sprain late in the season. Things should have improved this year through healing alone.

But that has not been the case, and it shows up in the marquee match-ups.

• Peyton Manning threw three interceptions in Atlanta (4-0 against the AFC West) on a Monday night game. He has one interception the rest of the season.
• Baltimore?s first loss of the season was to Philadelphia after leading 17-7 at halftime.
• Houston, widely considered the best AFC team, was blown out at home 42-24 by a Green Bay team who came in struggling.
• New England has already lost to Arizona and Seattle.

Teams buried in the NFC playoff race right now could be leading or tied for the lead in certain AFC divisions.

How did the NFC take control?
These changes do not happen overnight. Without much consistent winning, the NFC has used high draft picks to add significant talent since 2007, such as Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Ndamukong Suh, Clay Matthews, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Aldon Smith, Jason Pierre-Paul, Earl Thomas, Julio Jones, and Robert Griffin III.

In that time the NFC has also acquired through trade or free agency former AFC players such as Jared Allen, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Michael Turner, Marshawn Lynch, Vincent Jackson, Tony Gonzalez, Cortland Finnegan, and Darren Sproles.

• Nine teams this season are averaging over 25.0 points per game, and six are from the NFC.
• Of the 11 teams allowing fewer than 21.0 points per game, nine are from the NFC, including the top four.
• Eight of the 10 teams allowing the most points per game are from the AFC.
• Seven of the top 10 teams in turnover differential are from the NFC.

The NFC only has two teams (at best) with serious quarterback issues. The Eagles already have a successor behind Michael Vick (Nick Foles), while the Cardinals deal with injuries and inconsistencies from John Skelton and Kevin Kolb. St. Louis (Bradford), Carolina (Newton) and Detroit (Stafford) each wish their No. 1 overall pick was playing better right now, but those players are not going anywhere next year.

The AFC could see quarterback changes (this year or next) in Buffalo, New York, Kansas City, while situations with Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland and even San Diego are anything but stable. That is seven of the 16 teams.

The five best quarterbacks in the AFC were all drafted in 2004 or earlier. The cupboards have not been properly restocked around the conference, leading to the NFC?s resurgence.

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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/49554620/ns/sports-nfl/

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